Ned Dwyer

Infinite Bullets, Not Enough Barrels

Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

I think I might have superintelligence. I wasn’t born with it, I didn’t learn it or get bitten by a radioactive spider. It’s the large language models. Though the impact is smaller, and more boring than I expected, it’s a more useful version that I use every day.

A billion seconds is 31 years. AI skeptics are making the same mistake.

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

AI success on open-ended problems jumped from 25% to 76% in eight months. That’s the headline number in Anthropic’s recent post. The one I keep coming back to is two paragraphs further down. The time it takes for task length to double has itself dropped, from seven months to four. The curve’s going up, and it’s steepening as it goes.¹

Grand Theory of AI Skepticism (In UX Research)

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Most cynicism about AI in UX research is two years stale.

I spend a lot of time on r/UXResearch and on calls with researchers using Great Question. The same misperceptions come up in both. Confidently, often in upvoted comments, often in the same breath as “I haven’t actually tried it lately.”

Why I'm in the Codebase

Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Last week I shipped my first feature.

It’s a small one. For about five years, Great Question logged everyone out after two hours, no matter what. A hard-coded number an engineer dropped into a pentest fix back in 2021 that nobody ever went back and questioned. Security teams had asked for a tight limit, so we gave everyone the tight limit, and then everyone got logged out mid-session and blamed us for it. It drove our customers up the wall, and it drove me up the wall every time it bounced me out of my own product.

You Have to Touch AI Psychosis

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 20:00:00 +0000

Still from The Shining (1980), dir. Stanley Kubrick.

Andrej Karpathy hasn’t handwritten a line of code since December. His ratio of typed-to-delegated went from 80/20 to 0/100 in a few months. Mitchell Hashimoto says entire companies are now in AI psychosis and can’t be reasoned with about it. Garry Tan told a SXSW crowd he’s sleeping four hours a night because he can’t put Claude Code down, and that a third of the CEOs he knows are the same. He called it “cyber psychosis.” (His assistant later told TechCrunch he was joking.)

Inject the AI straight into my veins.

Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

If you want to fast-track your way to being a state-of-the-art AI-first team, the best thing you can be doing is bringing in AI-pilled guest speakers to indoctrinate your team.

I Vibe Coded Qualtrics in a Weekend

Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

I had a few hours free on Sunday, so I decided to vibe code Qualtrics. Surveys, branching logic, response collection, a dashboard. The lot. By the end of the afternoon I had something that genuinely worked.

Seed Stage Investor Update Template

Thu, 04 Aug 2022 17:51:40 +0000

Every month I write an update to our investors and advisors. I’ve been doing this since before Great Question was a company, before we wrote any lines of code.

And almost every month I get asked by folks on that list if they can copy the format, or share a sanitized version with their portfolio companies.

Emerging infrastructure and the entrepreneurial opportunity

Fri, 12 Apr 2019 15:01:16 +0000

Photo by Jake Sloop on Unsplash

Less than 10 years ago one of the first steps in launching your web or mobile app was buying and setting up your own dedicated hardware in a back room or remote server farm.

Your expense policy is hurting your team

Thu, 07 Mar 2019 19:17:07 +0000

Especially those who can least afford it.

Photo by Crawford Ifland on Unsplash

For most companies their expense policy is an afterthought.

It starts off informally.

“Spend as if it’s your own money”.

What the Quickbooks Accounting community can learn from GoDaddy Pro

Thu, 28 Feb 2019 16:27:24 +0000

What Intuit ProAdvisors can learn about QuickBooks LIVE from the GoDaddy Pro launch

With QuickBooks recent testing of an integrated bookkeeping service many accountants & bookkeepers have raised valid concerns about whether the platform they promote is about to compete with them.

For me this is a case of history repeating. In 2015 I joined GoDaddy as Director of Product working to help our web developer and designer community successful. We faced all of these same issues as we tried to balance the needs of our professional services community, with the needs of the customer, and the insatiable appetite of the public markets.

Welcome Spritz — the world’s most refreshing corporate card

Mon, 19 Nov 2018 18:01:01 +0000

Welcome Spritz — the world’s most refreshing corporate card

Today I’m excited to launch Spritz: the world’s most refreshing corporate card.

Every company in the world has expenses but no one likes doing them. We’re here to change that.

My love affair with large, competitive, fragmented markets

Wed, 22 Aug 2018 16:50:09 +0000

Benedict Evans on Twitter

The Startup Fork: If it doesn’t look like something we already have, the problem doesn’t exist. If it does, the problem’s already solved.

It’s easy to think all the good startup problems in B2B SAAS have already been solved.

The Grand Theory Of Customer Validation

Mon, 20 Aug 2018 17:54:03 +0000

Talking to customers is a critical factor in building a successful company.

It’s never more important than when you’re just getting started and still pre-product/market fit.

All of the secondary research in the world won’t tell you how people actually think, how they rank their pain points in comparison to others, or what they’ll pay for a given solution in time or money.

There is no Show Business Commission

Mon, 06 Aug 2018 19:39:44 +0000

In the latest season of Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee, Alec Baldwin talks about the Show Business Commission.

The Show Business Commission is a shadowy organization that identifies people with “enormous talent and tremendous potential” and yet “don’t really know what do to with it”.

The Kanye West Work Ethic @ Rap Camp

Wed, 04 Oct 2017 16:29:50 +0000

In late 2009 Kanye West set himself up in a mansion in Hawaii to record one of the greatest albums of all times: My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy.

19 Things I’ve Done

Sun, 03 Sep 2017 20:21:43 +0000

Since I was a little kid I’ve always looked for ways to make a buck.

In primary school I remember selling lollypops for 50 cents each from a bag of 50 that cost me a few bucks.

Managing your psychological runway

Tue, 30 Jun 2015 00:00:00 +0000

It wasn’t an easy decision to sell out.

We had spent almost three years working on Elto and we felt like we were close to breaking out.

At the same time we felt equally as close to breaking down.

Seek rejection

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 +0000

This is a post first published in August 2011 from my long-lost WordPress blog, reposted here for posterity.

I’m a massive fan of rejection. It’s what keeps me moving. If I wasn’t a fan I probably wouldn’t be in the business I am in.